The Wealth Manager
Posted by Paul in Mathemagical Thinking On September 27, 2019
Following on from Credit Ratings, here’s a true story about how reassuring mathematical analysis can be. Until it turns out to be baloney. This story is also a warning about experts. Unfortunately, although there’s a lesson here
Credit Ratings
Posted by Paul in Mathemagical Thinking On September 27, 2019
Didn’t you feel proud when your teacher gave you an A+ at school? Or were you a C student, must try harder? Don’t tell us you were an F! My, you’ve done well…considering. Just as teachers grade
Numbers Versus Symbols
Posted by Paul in Think Like A Mathematician On September 27, 2019
Are you a numbers person or a symbols person? Look, if you don’t know what I mean then it’s simple, you are a numbers person. It’s a question I often ask of my audience. It helps me
Experts? Phooey!
Posted by Paul in Mathemagical Thinking On September 26, 2019
Experts, who needs ’em? Until recently we’d all have said everyone. But that pendulum has swung all the other way. Experts? They don’t know what they are talking about. We understand this sentiment. We’ve criticized experts in
Am I Being Random, Still?
Posted by Paul in Mathemagical Thinking On September 26, 2019
What if we tossed a coin ten times and got HHHHHHHHHH and then we asked you to bet on the next toss? Ten Hs in a row has a probability ½^10= 0.0009765625. Pretty unlikely. But any mathematician
Am I Being Random?
Posted by Paul in Mathemagical Thinking On September 26, 2019
We’re going to be talking about patterns. Look at the following three sequences of playing cards. Sequence 1 Sequence 2 Sequence 3 7 ♣ J♠ 8♠ 10♡ K♣ A♡ K♠ 5♣ A♢ 3♢ 2♡ 7♡ 6♣ 9♠
Dumbing Down
Posted by Paul in Mathematics On September 25, 2019
In the once great Britain politicians are now pretty dumb. Royal Statistical Society did a survey of UK Members of Parliament, asking them if a coin is tossed twice what is the probability of getting two heads.
Fooling Churchill
The magician Paul Curry created the following trick known as either “Out of This World” or “The Trick that Fooled Churchill” since it was supposedly performed for him during the war. The Effect The Magician holds a
Penney’s Game
Here is a trick you can do with pennies. It is called Penney’s game. It is named after Walter Penney. Or was he named after the game? No one knows. You choose a sequence of heads and
One In 52 Continued
Before we explain the significance of this question you’ll need some background. I am giving one of my training courses to a group of investment bankers, hedge fund managers, risk managers, regulators, anyone with an interest in