Monthly Archive:: September 2019

Cheers!

Now we are going to talk about drink. About time. Specifically the martini. The original classic martini cocktail is two thirds gin, one third dry vermouth shaken with ice (if you are James Bond) or stirred (for

There’s Nothing Better Than The Right Bad News!

There are many quotes by famous people about problems being opportunities. “The block of granite which was an obstacle in the pathway of the weak, became a stepping-stone in the pathway of the strong.” Thomas Carlyle. “Every

The Wealth Manager

Following on from Credit Ratings, here’s a true story about how reassuring mathematical analysis can be. Until it turns out to be baloney. This story is also a warning about experts. Unfortunately, although there’s a lesson here

Credit Ratings

Didn’t you feel proud when your teacher gave you an A+ at school? Or were you a C student, must try harder? Don’t tell us you were an F! My, you’ve done well…considering. Just as teachers grade

Numbers Versus Symbols

Are you a numbers person or a symbols person? Look, if you don’t know what I mean then it’s simple, you are a numbers person. It’s a question I often ask of my audience. It helps me

Experts? Phooey!

Experts, who needs ’em? Until recently we’d all have said everyone. But that pendulum has swung all the other way. Experts? They don’t know what they are talking about. We understand this sentiment. We’ve criticized experts in

Am I Being Random, Still?

What if we tossed a coin ten times and got HHHHHHHHHH and then we asked you to bet on the next toss? Ten Hs in a row has a probability ½^10= 0.0009765625. Pretty unlikely. But any mathematician

Am I Being Random?

We’re going to be talking about patterns. Look at the following three sequences of playing cards. Sequence 1 Sequence 2 Sequence 3 7 ♣ J♠ 8♠ 10♡ K♣ A♡ K♠ 5♣ A♢ 3♢ 2♡ 7♡ 6♣ 9♠

Dumbing Down

In the once great Britain politicians are now pretty dumb. Royal Statistical Society did a survey of UK Members of Parliament, asking them if a coin is tossed twice what is the probability of getting two heads.

Fooling Churchill

The magician Paul Curry created the following trick known as either “Out of This World” or “The Trick that Fooled Churchill” since it was supposedly performed for him during the war. The Effect The Magician holds a