Monthly Archive:: October 2019
The Prediction Test
Posted by David in Mathemagical Thinking On October 30, 2019
The two most famous theories in the field of forecasting are the butterfly effect, and the efficient market hypothesis. Both are theories, not of prediction, but of non-prediction. The butterfly effect was developed by MIT meteorologist and
Simplify!
Posted by Paul in Mathemagical Thinking On October 2, 2019
The following may or may not be factually accurate. It all happened a long time ago. But it is absolutely 100% correct in spirit. Twenty or so years ago I was browsing through the library of Imperial
Perspective
Posted by Paul in Mathemagical Thinking On October 2, 2019
I love watching Dragons’ Den, the programme in which entrepreneurs try to get established business people to invest in their ideas. I love trying to predict which Dragon will say what, how they will negotiate a deal,
Rule #1 Of Investing: Don’t Obey Rule #1
Posted by Paul in Mathemagical Thinking On October 1, 2019
One of the first lessons in any course on investing will be about portfolio construction and the benefits of diversification, how to maximize expected return for a given level of risk. If assets are not correlated then